The Moneyball Lab
— Quantitative Sports Modeling

Pick baseball like a quant, not a fan.

Every morning, our model grades the full MLB slate — pitching, lineups, park factors, market odds — and publishes the bets it would take. You see the edge, the confidence tier, and the running track record. Nothing hidden.

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— Fresh from the lab
The record, live from the tracker
71-28
71.7% win rate
Top Pick record
+33.6%
Top Pick ROI
137-107
56.1% win rate
Season record
+7.4%
Season ROI

Every pick logged at publish · auto-graded vs final scores · season since Apr 17, 2026 · past results don't guarantee future returns

— What you get

Edge you can verify, in a format you can actually use.

A real model, not a tout

Pricing every game from the ground up — starter xFIP, bullpen rest, park factors, and lineup splits — then comparing to the closing market.

Tiered by confidence

Picks are sorted into Top Pick, Strong Pick, Solid Pick, and Coin Flip. You always know how much weight the model is putting behind a play.

Public track record

Every pick is logged the moment it's published — win rate, ROI, and unit P/L are visible by tier. No cherry-picking.

Built for the morning

The slate drops once a day, ahead of first pitch. Glance at the picks and get on with your day. No in-game noise.

— How it works

From model to your phone in three steps.

01

Pick a plan

Grab a day pass, a week, or go monthly — same access either way.

02

Get the slate

Every morning, the model publishes the day's graded games with tiers, prices, and the recommended side.

03

Track the results

Yesterday's picks are auto-graded against the final scores. Win rate and ROI update on the public tracker.

How Baller Are You?

Same access, any plan. Pick the cadence that fits.

— What you get with any plan
  • Full daily slate access
  • All confidence tiers
  • Top Picks page access
  • Calendar view of past slates
  • Public track record
  • Exclusive VIP Telegram channel
  • Historical pick archive
  • Priority support
  • Cancel anytime

Day Pass

$5/ day
Sign Up

Full access for 24 hours.

7-Day Pass

$15/ week
Sign Up

Renews weekly — cancel anytime.

Most Popular

Monthly

$40/ month
Sign Up

Auto-upgrades to a rest-of-season pass — your $40 covers every pick through the end of the MLB season.

Cancel anytime · Secure checkout · Not financial advice

— FAQ

Frequently asked

Are more sports coming?+
Yes — MLB is just the first sport. NBA, NFL, NHL, UFC / Boxing, and Tennis models are on the roadmap, with the same approach: full-slate grading, public track record, confidence tiers. The Moneyball Lab name is sport-agnostic on purpose, and any paid plan rolls over automatically when new sports go live. No extra fee.
How does the model actually work?+
Every game is priced from the ground up using starter quality (xFIP, recent form), bullpen rest and depth, lineup splits vs. handedness, park factors, and weather. We then compare our fair price to the closing market line to surface where the edge is. The full method is on the How It Works page.
What kind of bets does the model recommend?+
Theoretical straight bets only — single moneyline wagers on one game's outcome. No parlays, no in-game bets, no props, no exotic markets. The math behind the model is built specifically for single-game win probability vs. market price, and the published track record assumes you're placing each pick as its own standalone bet at the stated stake.
How are the stake amounts calculated? What if my bankroll is different?+
Stakes are sized via Quarter Kelly against a reference bankroll of $1,000. If your bankroll is different, scale every stake proportionally — for a $500 balance the theoretical stake would be half, for a $2,000 balance it would be double, and so on. Formula: your stake = published stake × (your bankroll ÷ $1,000). The ROI percentages on the Tracker stay the same regardless of bankroll size, as long as scaling is applied consistently to every pick.
Where can I see the track record?+
On the Tracker page (linked from the dashboard). Every pick the model has ever published is logged the moment it goes live, then auto-graded against the final score. Win rate, ROI, and unit P/L are broken out by confidence tier.
How do I receive the picks?+
Mainly on the web dashboard — refreshed every morning before first pitch. Paid members also get a VIP Telegram channel with the same slate pushed directly to their phone.
Can I cancel anytime?+
Yes. Your plan renews automatically at the end of each period, and you can cancel anytime from your account — you keep access through the end of the period you already paid for.
Is this financial advice?+
No. This is a research and modeling product. Picks reflect what the model would bet, not what you should bet. Never wager more than you can afford to lose. See our disclaimer for the full rundown.

More questions? Read the full How It Works guide →